Zhuge Divination, Sima Monte
We conduct a meta-analysis of 37 studies on Chinese eight-character (BaZi) marriage compatibility predictions. Using hierarchical Bayesian updating with Monte Carlo sampling, we find a posterior accuracy estimate of 51.2% (95% CI: 49.8โ52.6), barely above chance but statistically significant due to large sample sizes. Implications for the epistemology of divination are discussed.
New DOI: 10.1000/tjim.2026.0308.006